The IEA Sees 23 Million EV Sales in 2026

A record year, projected through turbulence

The International Energy Agency's Global EV Outlook 2026, published in May 2026, projects that global electric car sales will reach about 23 million vehicles in 2026, accounting for close to 30 percent of all new cars sold worldwide, according to the IEA's news release. That would extend a run of growth that has persisted through trade disputes, subsidy rollbacks and an energy shock that has roiled the broader car market.

The 2025 baseline behind that forecast is striking. Global electric car sales grew by 20 percent to exceed 20 million vehicles, meaning roughly a quarter of all new cars sold worldwide were electric, the IEA reports. Sales set records in nearly 100 countries, and in around 40 countries electric cars accounted for 10 percent or more of new car sales. Production is even more concentrated than sales: Chinese automakers supplied 60 percent of the electric cars sold worldwide in 2025, while European and North American automakers each accounted for about 15 percent, according to the report.

The forecast in detail

The IEA expects Europe to post the largest growth among major markets in 2026, with sales projected to rise by around 20 percent so that roughly one in three cars sold there is electric. China, already by far the largest EV market, is set to grow more slowly than in recent years, with electric cars reaching almost 60 percent of total Chinese car sales. Outside the biggest markets, the agency sees rapid catch-up growth, with sales across Asia-Pacific countries other than China expected to grow by more than 50 percent and Latin American sales projected to rise by around 45 percent.

The report is candid about the uncertainty surrounding those numbers. Global electric car sales in the first quarter of 2026 fell 8 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, primarily because of policy changes in China and the United States, the IEA notes. Yet the aggregate decline masked strong growth almost everywhere else: European sales rose close to 30 percent year on year, sales in Asia-Pacific excluding China jumped 80 percent, and Latin America was up 75 percent. In March 2026, around 30 countries logged record-breaking monthly EV sales, and roughly 60 more recorded year-on-year growth.

The context is an energy crisis driven by the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices higher and, in the IEA's assessment, sharpened consumer interest in the running-cost advantages of electric cars. The report suggests that high fuel prices are nudging buyers in oil-importing countries toward EVs, and that several governments have responded with tax breaks, scrappage schemes and charging programs framed as fuel-security measures.

Mid-year data confirms the direction

An IEA update published in July 2026, Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty, adds the first half-year picture. More than 9 million electric cars were sold worldwide in the first half of 2026, including over 5 million in the second quarter, which was 35 percent above the first quarter and 4 percent higher than a year earlier, according to the IEA. EVs took 24 percent of global new-car sales in the half-year, one point more than a year earlier, even as total global car sales fell about 5 percent. The agency continues to expect roughly 23 million sales, about 29 percent of the market, for the full year.

Europe led the way, with first-half EV sales up about 30 percent; Germany sold 140,000 more electric cars than a year earlier, the UK added 100,000, France 95,000, Italy 75,000 and Spain 40,000, per the IEA update. China's domestic market weakened, with first-half EV sales down almost 20 percent, but Chinese car exports surged 65 percent to more than 5 million units, and electric car exports grew by more than 120 percent, lifting EVs from about 35 percent of Chinese car exports in 2025 to more than 45 percent in the first half of 2026.

Trucks, two-wheelers and the long road to 2035

Beyond passenger cars, the IEA highlights rapid electrification in freight. Global electric truck sales more than doubled in 2025, with the vast majority in China, and electric models accounted for nearly one in ten trucks sold worldwide last year, according to the report. The most electrified segment remains two- and three-wheelers, which continued to grow in 2025. Southeast Asia stands out: annual electric car sales there more than doubled, lifting the regional share to close to 20 percent, and the IEA projects that share could reach 60 percent by 2035 given supportive price dynamics and policies.

The long-term picture in the Outlook is dramatic. By 2035, even without new policy announcements, the global electric car fleet, excluding two- and three-wheelers, is projected to grow to as much as 510 million vehicles, up from nearly 80 million today, according to the IEA.

Why the 23 million figure matters

Announcing the report, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said electric car sales set new records in close to 100 countries last year, and that the growing popularity of EVs marks a major shift for car markets and the energy system, providing some relief amid what he described as the largest oil supply shock in history. He added that falling battery prices and potential policy responses to the energy crisis are set to provide further momentum.

For automakers, the forecast underlines an uncomfortable split: companies still focused on combustion vehicles hold about 90 percent of total global car sales but only around 55 percent of EV sales, with newer EV-focused entrants capturing approximately 45 percent, up from less than 35 percent in 2019, according to the IEA's analysis. For buyers, the practical signal is simpler: electric cars now represent close to a third of the global market, with model choice, charging access and price parity improving in parallel. The 23 million projection is not a promise, and the first quarter showed how quickly policy can bend the curve, but as a central scenario from the agency that tracks the market most closely, it points to 2026 being another record year for electric mobility.